There are some major changes coming in our industry that will have significant impacts on equipment and repairs in the coming years. As of Jan 1, 2025 we will no longer be able to install split systems containing 410A refrigerant which has been the prominent refrigerant in unitary heating and cooling products in the United States since 2007. This is due to government regulations aimed at phasing out 410A production. This does not mean that 410A refrigerant won't be available, but I will certainly affect the price.
We saw the same scenario unfold as R22 was being phased out in the late 2000's, the government started with ceasing the production of the equipment, then several years later ceasing the production of the refrigerant, and R22 is still around. So this is not a scare tactic and there's no need to be alarmed, merely informed. When R22 production was halted in the US, prices when up largely because the demand was still there while the supply was getting less and less. We anticipate the same thing to happen to R410A refrigerant, but it could be a while. I can remember when R22 almost doubled in what seemed over night and that was around 2013, keep in mind R22 started it's phase out in 2007 (Phase outs happen at different rates depending on the guidelines set forth by the EPA and congress). Historically speaking then we can assume that R410A will have a similar track meaning that by 2034 we could see the price drastically increase.
Where this even becomes a concern is down the road, let's say 2036, if you have an R410A system that needs a repair that involves the refrigerant circuit then you can certainly expect to pay more for the refrigerant than someone needing the same repair on a system utilizing one of the new refrigerants that will be in current production. How much more? We can only speculate but in comparison R22 is at least 75% more expensive than R410A is right now (rates vary greatly but this is a general rule). With the average system containing at least 5 lbs of refrigerant, this can be a significant price difference depending of the repair.
I'm not sharing this information to scare anyone, matter of fact it's the exact opposite. I have been recommending to my clients if they can wait to replace a system, then do so. I have many clients that have known refrigerant leaks in their systems and most of the time we decide together to try and get the system into next year if they are thinking that replacement is an option as to not have an R410A system installed. That new system will be great don't get me wrong and it should last many years without issue, but I'm looking to 2036 and beyond and trying to give my clients the best advise I can. Sometimes it can't realistically wait, such as if you are looking at $3k+ in repairs on an older system, it doesn't make sense to wait, for the most part.
The new refrigerants in the residential market (that I'm aware of at the moment) will be R454B and R32. There are some other systems out there that use different refrigerants but these two will be the dominant in domestic production from the major manufacturers. I checked prices this morning 6/10/24 and looks like R32/R454B will enter the market somewhere from $45 to $60 per pound. In comparison R410A currently ranges from $80 to $200 per pound nation wide (these are averages from many different markets all across the US). We can likely expect R32/R454B to be around $100 per pound by 2036 while R410A will likely be $175+ per pound. These are my own assumptions based on historical data and may not be 100% accurate. Although I would like to pull this article up in 2036 and see how accurate I was.
This is just food for thought and again not meant to scare anyone. like I said it's the exact opposite. Most of my competition would call me crazy for telling consumers to not spend money right now, but it's solid advise if you can wait.
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