I'm writing this article to talk about the changes happening in the United States in terms of the refrigerants currently being used that will soon cease in manufacturing and how this will affect you as a consumer.
I'm already seeing the "scare tactic" posts on social media where contractors are alerting their clients about the need to hurry up and buy equipment before supplies run out. This is an old as time sales tactic called the element of scarcity. The reality of what is happening is as of January 1st 2025 we can no longer install split heating or cooling systems charged with R410A refrigerant. This is an initiative of the EPA as well as countries around the world working to reduce the use of chemicals known to cause issues with global warming. R410A will be replaced primarily by R32 and R454 (depending on manufacturer) and this has already started, as a matter of fact I've already started seeing the new R32 equipment at my supplier's warehouses.
The only negative affect I can foresee is in the circumstance that you have a 410A system and it makes sense to replace lets say just the outdoor unit because of a failed coil or compressor, you won't be able to do this. In that scenario you will be forced to either repair the system or replace the entire system. Replacing the entire system certainly costs more than replacing only part of it and repairing could too especially in the case of a failed condenser coil. I don't know of anyone that would dispute that, however; there's the other side of that coin to consider. In the unlikely event that your condenser coil fails (as this is a very uncommon diagnosis), you are likely better off replacing the entire system anyways. This is primarily because 410A refrigerant will likely follow the same path R22 did when it was phased out in the early 2000's and that is the fact that 410A refrigerant can expectedly become drastically more expensive in 2025 just like R22 did in 2009. This will drive the cost of repair up inevitably leaving consumers with difficult decisions of repair vs replace.
Let's talk about some of the claims I'm hearing and look at the reality. One claim I heard was parts will become difficult to get. NOT TRUE. R22 was phased out in 2009 and you can still buy many parts for these systems. You'd be surprised actually as equipment gets phased out and OEM's stop producing as many parts as they used to, a new door opens and aftermarket specialists kick into high gear as they know there will be a demand for many years to come.
The second myth I've heard is that the new equipment will be more expensive. As with any change there will inevitably be a change in price especially since change happens over time and so does inflation. I've already received my new pricing for my R32 equipment (that i'm already buying) and the price change was so insignificant that I didn't change any of my pricing for new installs. Manufacturer's typically have scheduled price increases about 2 times per year. The change in equipment has nothing to do with that.
Another myth I'm seeing on social media is that equipment won't be available... I think we've already dispelled that as I just got stating that I'm already buying R32 equipment, it's already available.
There's a simi reasonable myth that I've heard contractors talking about and that's the fact that the new refrigerants are flammable! Yes they are classified in a different category than 410A because they are more flammable; slightly. The new refrigerants would have to be in extreme concentration to even be considered hazardous. I'll put it this way, even if you had a refrigerant leak in your home with 5 candles lit in every room, your home still would not catch on fire or combust. There are supermarkets using almost pure propane (R290) as a refrigerant and none of them have blown up, so I think it's safe to say we will be ok with R32 and R454. Matter of fact, it may surprise you to know that R410A is 50% R32! R32 and R454 are nothing new.
Now let's talk about the reality and what we should be focusing on. The new equipment and standards will be here for a long time just like 410A and R22 where (both had about a 30 year run) and that means if you are in need of buying a new system, it's best to wait for the R32/R454 anyways. 410A will likely become more and more expensive making it even more sensible to ditch it and embrace the new equipment as the price for R32 and R454 will be much cheaper. Being that R32/454 will now be status quo, that means parts manufacturing will be in mass production especially as time passes making the needed parts for repair easier to get as they should be readily available. Try finding a muffler for a 1990 Chevy 2500 and also find a muffler for a 2021 Chevy 2500; which do you think will be easier and closer to you? The heating and air industry is no different.
I hope this information helps and always be wary when you see sales tactics of scarcity being used especially when they are used to scare you.
Kenneth Casebier
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